Market pulse
Today, markets are digesting a mix of earnings, guidance, and sector sentiment. Oscar Health ($OSCR) reported a Q4 miss with a $2.81 B revenue and -$1.24 EPS, but its 2026 guidance is strong, forecasting $18.7–$19 B in revenue and a return to operating profitability. Investors are weighing short-term disappointment against long-term growth potential.
Rivian ($RIVN) remains in the spotlight as EV delivery numbers and margins continue to challenge expectations. Mixed reviews highlight execution risk, ongoing recalls, and supply chain pressures, while the upcoming R2 model offers a potential catalyst.
Meanwhile, Robinhood ($HOOD) beat Q4 revenue and EPS estimates, posting $1.28 B in revenue and $0.66 EPS, while full-year 2025 marked record revenue of $4.5 B. Strong net deposits and growing Gold subscribers underpin its financial health, though macro headwinds and crypto volatility remain watch points.
Overall, investors are balancing earnings beats, guidance optimism, and sector-specific risks as the market looks ahead.
Oscar Health ($OSCR):
Oscar Health reported its Q4 2025 earnings today, delivering a mixed performance but offering an ambitious outlook for next year:
Q4 2025 Summary
Revenue: $2.81 billion, missed expectations (analysts ~ $3.1 B)
EPS: -$1.24 (significantly wider loss than analysts anticipated).
Despite the disappointing quarter, Oscar grew annual revenue to ~$11.7 B on strong membership growth reflecting expansion in its individual and small‑group segments.
2026 Outlook
The company provided aggressive guidance for fiscal 2026, forecasting:
Revenue: $18.7 B – $19.0 B
Earnings from operations: $250 M – $450 M (targeting a return to profitability)
Improved medical loss and SG&A ratios vs. 2025 levels.
Market Reaction: Mixed (shares initially dipped on the earnings miss but later traded higher on the stronger long‑term outlook).
Takeaway: Oscar’s core business is growing, but near‑term profitability pressures remain. If management executes on cost discipline and membership retention, the 2026 forecast could drive renewed investor confidence.
Rivian ($RIVN):
While Rivian hasn’t reported new earnings today, recent sentiment and industry coverage reflect ongoing challenges and cautious optimism:
Recent Themes & Reviews
Rivian’s stock has been volatile as investors digest production and delivery performance, which has been below early high expectations. Delivery guidance for full‑year 2025 was narrowed, despite some quarters beating delivery estimates.
EV sector critics highlight production headwinds, supply chain constraints, and loss of certain EV tax credits as pressure points.
On the product side, testing and development of the upcoming R2 crossover SUV continues, with new updates such as cold‑weather evaluation reported, a key sign Rivian is progressing toward broader model rollouts.
Investor Sentiment:
Analysts remain mixed on Rivian’s near‑term path while the company has strengths in brand loyalty and EV demand, weak margins and execution risk temper the outlook.
Takeaway: Rivian remains a high‑beta EV play with strategic product catalysts ahead, but operational execution and broader EV market dynamics will likely continue to shape performance.
Robinhood Markets ($HOOD):
Robinhood released full Q4 and full‑year 2025 results today after market close, and the highlights show a strong year overall:
Q4 2025 Results:
Total Net Revenues: $1.28 billion up ~27% YoY
Diluted EPS: $0.66 (beat consensus expectations).
Net Income: ~$605 million in the quarter.
Full‑Year 2025:
Record Revenues: $4.5 billion
Annual Diluted EPS: $2.05
Gold Subscribers: ~4.2 million (new all‑time high)
Record Net Deposits: $68 billion (strong inflows).
Market Reaction: Despite the beat on earnings and strong annual metrics, HOOD shares slipped in some trading as the top‑line slightly trailed some expectations.
Takeaway: Robinhood closed 2025 with record scale and profitability, and while cautious trading reflects forward growth scrutiny, the trend reinforces its path toward broad financial super‑app ambitions.
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